India was the world's biggest importer of Russian oil in February, exceeding China by 20 million barrels.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
India's imports from Russia rose 64 per cent to $36.27 billion during the April-October period this fiscal on higher shipments of crude oil and fertiliser, according to the commerce ministry data. With this, Russia has become India's second-largest import source during the first seven months of this fiscal. The imports were $22.13 billion during April-October 2022.
After registering a positive growth for two months, India's exports slipped into negative territory again, contracting 2.17 per cent year-on-year to $38.73 billion in May due to a fall in global petroleum prices, while trade deficit narrowed at $21.88 billion during the month.
Indian imports of Russian oil plunged by a record in August month-on-month (M-o-M) as discounts on the fuel shrank in tandem with rising Brent oil prices. Higher crude prices will drive inflation or hurt earnings at oil companies and India's fiscal position if such spikes are not passed on to consumers. Indian purchases of Russian crude declined by around 24 per cent in August from July to the lowest level since January, with refiners expecting volumes to drop further amid rising rates of Russian benchmark Urals grade, substantial stocks at refiners, and planned maintenance at Indian refineries, according to ship tracking data and industry officials.
Indian exports to the US will face a 10% tariff, down from 25%, for 150 days following a US Supreme Court ruling. However, uncertainty persists due to potential further tariff hikes and long-term implications.
The comments come ahead of Trump's high-profile meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday in Anchorage, Alaska.
The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from $65,877 per kg in January 2024 to $86,464 per kg in January 2025.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd will import 1.4 million barrels (0.2 million tonnes) of Iraqi Basra Light crude oil during September-December.
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Gor also announced that India will be a member of the Pax Silica alliance.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
India's imports from Russia rose by about 67 per cent to $30.42 billion during the April-September period this fiscal on higher shipments of crude oil and fertiliser, according to the commerce ministry data. With this, Russia has become India's second-largest import source during the first half of this fiscal. The imports were $18.24 billion during April-September 2022.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal announced that an interim trade agreement between India and the US is likely to be signed in March and operationalised in April, with chief negotiators meeting in Washington to finalize the details.
Western sanctions aimed at crippling Iranian finances by drying up buyers for its crude oil, had last year banned insurance cover to ships carrying Iranian oil.
The Trump administration has sanctioned entities and individuals from India involved in sales of Iran's petroleum and petroleum products, saying the funds from this trade support Tehran's regional terrorist proxies and procure weapons systems that are a direct threat to the US.
India and Russia are poised to sign multiple agreements to bolster cooperation in various sectors, including trade and healthcare, during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to New Delhi. Discussions will also address the Ukraine conflict and efforts to increase Indian exports to Russia.
India is expected to ramp up its purchase of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the coming months following discussions between the two countries on the sidelines of the ongoing COP28 summit in Dubai, multiple sources in the know said. The UAE has historically been India's third-largest source of crude. It has suffered the largest drop in shipments since Indian refiners began to binge on Russian crude in 2022.
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
A resurgence in Saudi Arabian supplies of crude oil to India coupled with an attack on an Iraqi tanker in August carrying crude to Europe may result in improved bargaining power for India with West Asian and Russian suppliers for winter supplies. Shipments of Saudi oil rebounded in September from August, surging to the highest since March while Russian oil shipments rose marginally as Saudi Arabia tried to claw back market share in Asia, according to industry sources and ship tracking data.
Reliance Industries' refining earnings will remain steady, supported by its position as India's largest importer of Russian crude and favourable global supplies, according to analysts at JM Financial and Goldman Sachs. Reliance imported more Russian barrels than any other Indian refiner in the past eight months, according to data from Bloomberg/Kpler.
...reopen for up to six months. Until then, the Strait stays nearly closed. The world pays. And no one, including the man who started this, can say when it ends, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Officials from State-run refiners contend that savings from purchase of Russian oil are used to offset a part of the losses in revenues from selling transport fuels and LPG at State-set rates.
India and Russia have solidified a five-year plan to enhance their economic and trade partnership, while also addressing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the threat of terrorism.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Indian envoy Vinay Mohan Kwatra discussed fair, balanced and mutually beneficial trade ties with US lawmakers amid ongoing tariff tensions between New Delhi and Washington.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 25 per cent tariff on all goods coming from India starting August 1 and an unspecified penalty for buying Russian crude oil and military equipment.
The depreciation of Indian rupee against the US dollar is expected to push the country's import bill by about $15 billion, think tank GTRI said on Thursday. Compared to December last year, the Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated 2.34 per cent against the US dollar, moving from Rs 83.25 to Rs 85.20, while the Chinese Yuan has weakened by 0.06 per cent, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
Ahead of trade talks between Indian and United States officials in Delhi, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said India, which has the 'highest tariffs' of any major country, is 'coming to the table'.
ONGC's overseas arm applied for a sanctions waiver to access $500 million dividend from two Venezuelan projects.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit India around December 5 to hold annual summit talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to further solidify bilateral strategic ties.
Stock markets are likely to trade in a range-bound manner in a holiday-shortened week where trading activity of foreign investors, currency movement and global macroeconomic data announcements are expected to drive sentiments, analysts said. Several global markets may see subdued activity on account of Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.
'India has intentionally taken advantage of the war in Ukraine to dramatically increase its purchases of Russian crude, when there are roughly 40 major crude providers that could satisfy Indian demand.'
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Savings for Indian refiners from purchasing Russian oil have decreased to a third of what they were in the years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which triggered global crises, sanctions, and discounted Russian oil seeking buyers. Despite this, savings from importing cheap Russian oil were significant enough to help Indian refiners tide over frozen petrol and diesel pump prices.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
